Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: October 2020

Executive Summary of Report

In this comprehensive national demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 listing sites). 

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city, and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising. 

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result. 

The following report compares month-over-month ILS data, as well as a comparison from the same period last year. 

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on monthly lead volume per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 3.2 this month, versus 3.8 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced a decrease in lead volume per property by 16% (3.2 ÷ 3.8 = 16%).

Lead Volume Percentage (%+/): This is determined according to the month-over-month (MOM) or year-over-year (YOY) increase or decrease in lead volume per property, per city. 

For example: In 2020, month-over-month lead volume in Oshawa, ON went down 15% in September versus August. However, in 2020, the year-over-year lead volume in Oshawa went up 9.5% compared to September 2019.

Position: The position is determined by lead volume per property, with cities that have at least *10 properties or more. Position will vary depending on demand. 

For example: In September, Oshawa moved up 1 spot (from 4th to 3rd on the list) versus August. Although Oshawa's demand score decreased in this report, it still remained higher than the remaining 47 cities based on lead volume per property, resulting in moving up in position.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for September versus August 2020, as well as a comparison from September 2020 versus September 2019.

Key takeaways from the report:

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall rental demand has decreased this month from the previous month, which remains consistent with data trends we have identified over a number of different platforms, and is due to a seasonal decline after summer. 

In fact, month-over-month lead volume is actually 2% higher this year, than it was last year.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Lead volume is quite healthy right now despite COVID-19, and is in line with annual seasonal trends.

Overall demand for multifamily residential housing is actually up 9% this year, versus the same time last year.

The data also shows there has been a shift in demand from rentals in urban city centers to more secondary markets. We can provide a thesis that this is attributed to movement away from densely populated areas to reduce the spread of COVID-19, the need for additional space as people continue to work from home, and those in search of more affordable rentals, away from city centers, now that they are no longer commuting to work.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

*Demand is calculated using leads per property per city for August 2020 versus September 2020

Notable Changes Over the Past Month

Upward

• Secondary markets such as Burnaby, BC, Moncton, NB, Tillsonburg, ON, Stratford, ON, Barrie, ON, and Belleville, ON saw an increase in demand this month from the previous month.
   
• Burnaby, BC moved up 13 spots and saw a .5 increase in demand, and 3% increase in lead volume.
   
• Moncton, NB moved up 29 spots and saw a .5 increase in demand, and a 14% increase in lead volume.
   
• Montreal, QC moved up 9 spots and saw .1 increase in demand, and a 5% increase in lead volume.

Downward

• Welland, ON dropped 12 spots, a reduced demand of 1.0, and a reduction of 39% in lead volume this month.
   
• East York, ON dropped 18 spots, a reduced demand of 1.0, and a reduction of 45% in lead volume this month.
   
• Victoria, BC dropped 18 spots, a reduced demand of .8, and a reduction of 41% in lead volume this month.
   
• North Vancouver, BC dropped 11 spots, a reduced demand of .7, and a reduction of 38% in lead volume this month.
   
• Spruce Grove, BC dropped 17 spots, a reduced demand of .6, and a reduction of 38% in lead volume this month.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M)

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Gatineau, QC remained in the top spot for demand, with a reduced demand of 2.5 points from the previous month.
    

2. Surrey, BC replaced Kelowna for the 2nd highest in demand location, with a reduced demand of .1, and experienced a slight drop in lead volume (5%).
    

3. Oshawa, ON moved up one spot and dipped .3 in demand this month.
    

4. Abbotsford, BC moved up 3 spots on the list, and a reduced demand of .4 for the month.
    

5. Hamilton, ON dropped 1 spot, and had a reduced demand of .7 for the month.
    

6. Brampton, ON moved up on the list 2 spots, with a reduced demand of .6 for the month.
    

7. Kitchener, ON dropped 2 spots, and had a reduced demand of 1.0 for the month.
    

8. Peterborough, ON experienced a spike in demand, and moved up 6 positions on the list, and increased demand by .2.
    

9. Kelowna, BC dropped 7 positions this month, and demand decreased 1.6.
    

10. London, ON dropped 1 position and .6 in demand this month versus the previous month.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down: September 2019 vs. September 2020 (Y/Y)

Notable Changes Over the Past Year

Upward

• Secondary markets such as Gatineau, QC, Surrey, BC, Oshawa, ON, Hamilton, ON, Peterborough, ON, Kelowna, BC and London, ON all increased their demand score this year versus the same time last year.
   
• Kelowna, BC moved more than 50 spots over the past year, which may be a result of less travel out of the country, increasing local tourism within Canada.

*We have an additional 68 properties listed (+20%) on ILS's, giving the appearance of a poorer performance in 2020 vs 2019, but we actually see a 9% increase in overall lead volume versus the same time last year. 

Downward

• Primary markets in the GTA saw a decrease in demand from the previous year. Toronto specifically dropped from 11th highest in demand in 2019 to the 45th spot during the same period in 2020.
   
• Montreal, QC also experienced a significant downward trend in demand ranking 47th this year, versus 14th during the same time last year.

*These trends are consistent with what we have witnessed since the beginning of COVID-19. As cities with denser populations experience a reduction in demand, secondary areas that provide more living and working space are experiencing a lift. 
 

Conclusion

The data in this report shows that despite COVID-19, the rental market appears to be stable, and experiencing normal seasonal shifts in demand. The most notable changes appear to reside in primary versus secondary markets where we see the greatest shift in lead volume and overall demand. We will continue to monitor, and provide in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year, to provide you with the most accurate insights to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.