Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: June 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Dartmouth, NS received a demand score of 5.9 this month, versus 6.0 last month. Therefore, Dartmouth experienced a decrease in demand (unique prospects per property) by 0.1 points this month.

Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.

For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Dartmouth, NS went down 1% in May versus April. But in May 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Dartmouth, NS have gone up 37% compared to May 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Dartmouth, NS moved up 1 spot on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Dartmouth, NS is up 10 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for May 2021 versus April 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from May 2021 versus May 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.

Key Takeaways:

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from April to May increased by 3%, however, the number of properties increased marginally by 0.2% this month versus last month.

This month primary markets saw a +0.5% increase in demand. Meanwhile, secondary markets dropped -8.3% in demand, and tertiary markets saw the biggest increase in demand at +2.9%. 

Still, secondary markets saw +48.5% more unique prospects per property this month versus primary markets, and tertiary markets saw +25.9% more unique prospects per property versus primary markets this month.

*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced a slight increase in demand in May 2021 versus April 2021, normal to seasonal trends but due to increased lockdown measures and COVID cases did not yield a significant month-over-month increase.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up 21.8% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada continues to flourish. Overall supply is up 24% with more than 2,265 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Overall, the year-over-year (May '21 vs May '20) data shows:

• Primary market demand is down (-21.9%)

• Secondary market demand is down (-9.2%) 

• Tertiary market demand is up (+9.6%)

The year-over-year rental market for late spring reveals that it has impacted primary and secondary markets most heavily due to continued lockdown measures in many of these cities. Tertiary markets continue to be less impacted as they show year-over-year growth in demand. As vaccines roll out, travel reopens, and immigration commences, we may see a greater surge in demand in primary and secondary markets into the summer and fall months.

Last month, we noted that the data indicated we may be heading towards demand trending upwards, however, due to stricter lockdown measures that presented themselves in May has clearly impacted movement across market next month will provide a clearer year-over-year analysis of whether markets are only temporarily trending upwards, or if we are trending towards pre-COVID demand numbers.

As for primary market trends; lockdowns, travel restrictions, and in-class schooling is still at risk, especially in densely populated areas in Ontario and Quebec, therefore we can expect to see these regions continue to be impacted until residents can move around more comfortably.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for May 2021 versus April 2021

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

• Overall, the majority of Canadian cities showed month-over-month stability, however, although many cities saw demand continue to increase month-over-month, increased lockdown measures and an increase in COVID cases likely stalled the upward trends in certain Canadian regions. 

Upwards

• Waterloo, ON moved up 10 spots, increased demand by +1.3, and experienced a 23% increase in prospects per property.

• New Westminster, BC moved up 13 spots and saw an increase in demand of +1.0, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Richmond, BC moved up 11 spots and saw an increase in demand of +0.8, and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Sudbury, ON moved up 9 spots and saw an increase of +0.6 in demand and a 19% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Calgary, AB moved up 9 spots and saw an increase in demand of +0.5 and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Saskatoon, SK moved up 8 spots, increased demand by +0.3, and saw a 17% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Red Deer, AB entered the top 50 list, experiencing an increase in demand of +0.5, and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Camrose, AB also entered the top 50 list, increasing demand by +0.2, and unique prospects per property by 22%.

*Prince Albert, SK entered the list this month as it hit a threshold of over 20 properties listed, and came in with a demand score of 1.5.

No Demand Change

• Welland, ON moved up 4 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 5.0 points, and a slight 2% increase in prospects per property.

• Coquitlam, BC remained in 11th spot, and stayed at 4.6 demand points, with a slight 1% decline in unique prospects per property.

• Burlington, ON moved up 4 spots, keeping steady at 3.3 in demand points, and a 1% uptick in prospects per property.

• Oakville, ON moved up 3 spots and held at 3.1 in demand with a slight 1% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB moved up 6 spots, remaining at 1.7 demand points, and saw a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Toronto, ON moved up 6 spots on the list, but held steady at 1.6 demand points, and up 1% in unique prospects per property. 

Downwards

• Surrey, BC remained in the top spot, despite a -1.4 decline in demand, and a 15% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Oshawa, ON also stayed in the second spot, with a -1.8 reduction in demand, while experiencing a 22% drop in unique prospects per property.

• Abbotsford, BC moved down 7 spots this month, reduced demand by -1.4 points, and saw a 25% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Halifax, NS dropped 4 spots this month, reducing demand by -0.6 points, and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• North York, ON went down 9 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.8, and saw a 22% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• West Vancouver, BC moved down 1 spot, saw a -0.2 decrease in demand, and a 15% decline in unique prospects per property.

• Saint John, NB moved down 3 spots, experiencing a -0.4 decline in demand and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): May 2021 vs. April 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Surrey, BC remained in the top spot, despite a -1.4 decline in demand, and a 15% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

2. Oshawa, ON also stayed in the second spot, with a -1.8 reduction in demand, while experiencing a 22% drop in unique prospects per property.

3. Dartmouth, NS moved up 1 spot in the top 10 list this month but saw a -0.1 decrease in demand and a slight 1% decrease in prospects per property.

4. Waterloo, ON moved up 10 spots, increased demand by +1.3, and experienced a 23% increase in prospects per property.

5. Welland, ON moved up 4 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 5.0 points, and a slight 2% increase in prospects per property.

6. Brampton, ON stayed in 6th position, although decreased demand by -0.7 points, and a 12% decrease in unique prospects per property.

7. Kitchener, ON moved up 5 spots, increased +0.3 demand points, and saw a 6% increase in unique prospects per property for the month.

8. New Westminster, BC moved up 13 spots, saw a +1.0 increase in demand and an increase of 20% unique prospects per property.

9. Brandford, ON moved up 4 spots, increasing demand by +0.5 points, and unique prospects per property by 9%

10.  Nanaimo, BC moved up 6 spots and saw a +0.6 increase in demand and a 11% increase in unique prospects per property. 

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in May 2021 versus April 2021 came from Waterloo, ON, and New Westminster, BC. This may be attributed to remote working conditions and the need for more space and affordability.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): May 2021 vs. May 2020​

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

1. Surrey, BC remained in the same spot this year, although decreasing demand by -0.7 points, and experienced a decrease of 8% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.

2. Oshawa, ON moved up 3 spots from this time last year, and increased demand by +0.3 points, and increased 52% year-over-year in unique prospects per property.

3. Dartmouth, NS moved up 10 spots this year, and increased demand by +2.2 points, and experienced an increase of 37% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.

4. Waterloo, ON moved up 2 spots this year, but increased demand by +0.1, and saw a 1% increase in unique prospects per property.

5. Welland, ON moved up 12 spots this year, with demand increasing by +1.5 points, and an increase in unique prospects per property by 32% this year versus last year this time.

6. Brampton, ON moved down 4 spots on the list and saw demand decrease by +2.6 points and a decrease of 44% in unique prospects per property.

7. Kitchener, ON moved up 1 spot from last year and saw an increase of +0.` points and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.

8. New Westminster, BC moved up 11 spots this year, increased demand by +1.3 points versus this time last year, and saw an increase of 28% in unique prospects per property.

9. Brantford, ON moved up 11 spots on the list, and saw demand increase by +1.4 points, and increase 28% in unique prospects per property.

10.  Nanaimo, BC moved up 14 spots, increased demand by +1.7 points, and saw an increase of 36% in unique prospects per property.

*The most notable increase in demand year-over-year is in Secondary and Tertiary Canadian cities. There appears to be a drastic increase in demand where affordability and additional space are available for renters. This is likely due to a long-term commitment by many businesses to allow for remote work, as well as virtual schooling, meaning children and parents are living and working together 24/7, making living and working space a greater priority.

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

1. Primary (Populations Over 600K)

2. Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)

3. Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K).

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways:

Month-Over-Month (M/M)
Primary: Supply decreased 0.7% and demand increased by 0.5%.
Secondary: Supply decreased 0.9% and demand decreased 8.2%.
Tertiary:  Supply decreased 5.1% and demand increased 2.9%.

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)
Primary: Supply increased 29.7% and demand decreased 21.9%.
Secondary: Supply increased 17.7% this year and demand decreased 9.2%.
Tertiary:  Supply increased 8.1% this year and demand increased 7.6%.

Canadian Cities – Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): May 2021 vs. April 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Demand in primary markets increased again this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by 0.5% in primary markets this month, while supply increased by 0.7% this month versus last month. This is the second month in a row that we've seen primary market demand trending upwards, indicating that rent rates in these areas may begin to creep upwards.

Upward

• Scarborough, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 10% increase in prospects per property.

• Mississauga, ON saw a +0.3 increase in demand and a 12% lift in unique prospects per property.

• Vancouver, BC moved up +0.2 demand points and saw an increase of 7% in unique prospects per property.

• Calgary, AB saw a +0.4 increase in demand and saw a 19% bump in unique prospects per property.

• Ottawa, ON increased +0.1 demand points and saw an 8% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB experienced a +0.2 increase in demand and saw a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Toronto, ON saw a +0.2 increase in demand and experienced a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• North York, ON remained at 3.8 demand points and experienced a +1% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Montreal, QC stayed at 1.3 demand points and experienced a 5% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Edmonton, AB remained at 1.0 demand points and experienced a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.

*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from April to May is showing continued demand growth, which may be attributed to normal seasonal shifts, as well as the roll out of vaccinations in these high-risk cities. We may begin to see primary markets reemerge as vaccines become more widespread and borders and travel reopen.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): May 2021 vs. May 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total demand decreased 21.9% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up 29.7% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC moved up 2 spots, experiencing a +0.7 increase in demand and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Calgary, AB moved up 1 spot from this time last year and saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 14% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB has seen a +0.1 increase in demand as well as a 7% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

Downward

• Scarborough, ON has experienced a -0.4 decrease in demand from this time last year and a decrease of 12% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• North York, ON saw a -3.5 reduction in demand and a 54% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Mississauga, ON moved down 2 spots, had a -0.7 point decrease in demand, and a 20% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Ottawa, ON decreased by -0.3 in demand and saw a 9% decrease in unique prospects per property from last year.

• Toronto, ON decreased demand by -0.3 points and saw a 17% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Montreal, QC reduced demand by -1.8 and has seen a drastic decline of 64% in unique prospects per property.

• Edmonton, AB saw a -0.2 decrease in demand and a 13% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*The majority of primary cities in Ontario experienced a decrease in demand in May, likely attributed to the lockdown measures across the province. Primary cities in Western provinces such as Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB, and Winnipeg, MB, continue to see rental demand growth year-over-year.

Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): May 2021 vs. April 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw a decrease of 8.2% prospects per property this month, with supply slightly decreasing by 0.9% in these areas. 

Upwards

• Kitchener, ON increased demand by +0.3 and saw a 6% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Hamilton, ON increased demand by +0.3 and saw an 8% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.2 increase in demand and a 6% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.1 in demand and a 3% increase in unique prospects per property.

Downward

• Surrey, BC decreased demand by -1.4 points and saw a 15% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Oshawa, ON saw a decrease of -1.9 demand points and a decrease of 7% in unique prospects per property.

• Brampton, ON saw a decrease of -0.7 in demand and decreased prospects per property by 22%.

• Halifax, NS experienced a -0.6 decrease in demand and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Windsor, ON experienced a decrease of -0.1 demand, and a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• London, ON reported a -0.1 decrease in demand and a 4% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.

*Secondary markets saw its first significant decline in month-over-month demand over the past few months, and is likely related to continued lockdowns during the month of May, as well as a slight market correction from the surge in demand over the past year in these cities.

Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): May 2021 vs. May 2020

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is down 9.2% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up 17.7% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.

Upward

• Oshawa, ON increased demand by +4.4 points and 52% unique prospects per property this year versus last year.

• Kitchener, ON saw a 0.1 increase in demand and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Halifax, NS saw a 1.0 point increase in demand and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Victoria, BC experienced a +1.1 point increase in demand and a 43% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.

Downward

• Surrey, BC decreased demand by 0.7 and unique prospects per property by 7% this year versus last.

• Brampton, ON decreased demand by 2.6 points, and saw a decrease in unique prospects per property by 33% this year versus last.

• Hamilton, ON decreased demand by 0.5 points this year and experienced an 11% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a decrease of 2.9 demand points and a 44% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Windsor, ON experienced a 0.2 decrease in demand and saw an 8% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• London, ON experienced a decrease of 0.1 in demand and a 3% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*The year-over-year demand in secondary markets is beginning to cool, which may be attributed to lockdowns and the impact of increasing demand on rent rates over the past year in secondary cities. 

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-100K)

Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): May 2021 vs. April 2021

Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Overall, tertiary markets continue to see growing month-over-month demand across most cities in these markets.

*Unique prospects per property increased by 2.9% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with a decrease of 5.1% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)

Upward

• Burnaby, BC increased demand by +0.4 this month and experienced a 10% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Richmond, BC increased demand by +0.8 points and saw an increase of 21% in unique prospects per property this month.

• Sudbury, ON went up +0.6 in demand and saw a 19% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Oakville, ON increased demand by +0.1 points this month versus last month and experienced a 1% increase in unique prospects per property.

• St. Catharines, ON experienced a +0.2 increase in demand points and a 7% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

No Demand Change

• Burlington, ON remained at 3.3 demand points and saw a small increase of 1% in unique prospects per property this month.

• Regina, SK stayed at 1.0 demand and saw a slight 1% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

Downward

• Abbotsford, BC experienced a +1.4 decrease in demand and a 25% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last. 

Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): May 2021 vs. May 2020

Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, unique prospects per property are up 7.6% this year versus the same time last year, and a number of properties are up 8.1% this year versus the same time last year.

Upward

• Abbotsford, BC increased demand by +0.6 points and 15% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Burnaby, BC increased demand by +0.7 points and 16% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Richmond, BC saw a +2.4 increase in demand and a 61% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Sudbury, ON increased demand by +0.8 demand points, and saw a 24% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

• Saskatoon, SK experienced a +0.4 increase in demand and a 25% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Regina, SK increased demand by +0.2 and went up 15% in unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.

Downward

• Burlington, ON experienced a -0.5 point decline in demand and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• Oakville, ON saw a -1.2 point decline in demand and a 27% decrease in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• St. Catharines, ON reported a -0.2 point decline in demand and a 27% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Guelph, ON saw a -0.3 point decline in demand and a 15% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*It's worth noting that the majority of tertiary cities that experienced year-over-year decline are all within Ontario, and can be attributed to COVID lockdowns.

Conclusion

The data shown in this report reveals that the 2021 late-spring rental market experienced minor increases in demand across many Canadian cities month-over-month, however, what normally would have been a strong month, may have been stalled due to strict lockdowns across many Canadian cities and provinces.

As anticipated, as vaccines continue to roll out, we have seen a slight resurgence in some Primary markets such as in the GTA and Western Canada, especially as rent rates have flattened and motivated renters look to get in low while they can. However, major metros in Quebec continue to experience weakening demand likely attributed to stricter lockdown measures in this region. As remote work and schooling continue, the search for space and affordability continues. Over the past year, many secondary market rent rates have surged, therefore as young adults look for affordable housing, tertiary markets are beginning to see an increase in demand.

Finally, as the price of real estate continues to drive upwards, many homeowners are choosing to sell high, and rent as an alternative, until the market cools.

We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.