The wait is over! View the November 2023 Rentsync National Rental Demand Report.
In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).
The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city, and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.
As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.
In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months.
For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 6.3 this month, versus 4.2 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 2.1 points this month.
Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.
For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 32% in January versus December. In January 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 54% compared to January 2020.
Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. Position will vary depending on demand.
For example: This month, Oshawa moved up 1 spot versus last month due to an upward month-over-month change (32% increase) in prospects per property. Whereas Surrey, BC moved down 1 spot (from 1st to 2nd on the list), despite maintaining its demand score from last month.
*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for January 2021 versus December 2020, as well as a year-over-year comparison from January 2021 versus January 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from December to January increased 25.7%, and number of available properties also increased by 8.8%, showing stronger demand overall for the month of January versus December.
*These trends are consistent with seasonality, as prospects begin to ramp up their search for rental housing at the beginning of the year. For example, last year, overall unique prospects increased by 22.2% from December 2019 to January 2020 and available properties increased by 11.1% during the same time.
This month each market saw an increase in total prospects per property: Primary (+26.6%), Secondary (+23%), and Tertiary (+18.5%). Overall, the rental housing markets experienced an overall growth of 22.7% prospects per properties in January 2021 compared to December 2020.
*Additionally, the majority of Canadian cities experienced an increase in demand moving into January 2021 versus the end of last year.
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is actually up 24.9% this year, versus the same time last year, however, supply is also up 33.6% with more than 3,187 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year.
Primary markets are down (-25.95%), secondary markets are down (-3.8%), and tertiary markets are down (-3.9%) this year-versus last year. As you can see primary markets are suffering the greatest blow due to the pandemic, while secondary and tertiary are relatively stable given the increase in supply year-over-year.
Therefore, increased supply has impacted unique prospects per property across the majority of Canadian cities year-over-year. As more supply floods the market (i.e. Airbnbs), demand is being spread out.
We can hypothesize that this downward trend in primary markets may begin to bottom out as vaccines begin to roll out in the later part of the year, as cities begin to reopen and restrictions begin to loosen. However, for the time being, we can expect COVID-19 and remote work, to continue to impact migration away from urban city centers to locations with more space and more affordable housing, as remote work continues to increase.
*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for Jan 2021 versus Dec 2020
*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced a rebound in demand this month, with few experiencing any significant downward trend.
*The increase in demand found in Oshawa, ON, Abbotsford, BC, and Welland, ON could be related to remote work and migration to less densely populated areas with reduced rent rates.
*These trends are consistent with seasonality, as prospects begin to ramp up their searches. For example, last year overall unique prospects increased by 22.2% from December to January.
In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets:
Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations, and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.
*Overall demand in primary markets increased this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by 26.6% overall this month versus last month, and supply increased by +8.5% in primary markets.
*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from December to January show a slight rebound from the previous month, and are a good indication of stability for 2021.
(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)
*Overall, total unique prospects per property has decreased -25.95% year-over-year in primary markets, however, this year, supply is outpacing demand – listings for rental properties are up 29.5% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.
*Due to increased vacancies/availability, supply is outpacing demand in primary markets in January of this year versus last year.
*Certain primary cities such as Winnipeg, MB and Edmonton, AB continue to be less impacted by the effects of COVID-19 on year-over-year demand due to spacious more affordable housing conditions and less impacted by lockdown measures that other major cities are experiencing.
*As work from home orders continue, and primary markets in Ontario and Quebec remain hot beds for COVID-19, it is not surprising that cities in these regions are seeing these downward trends in demand and unique prospects per property. Given that many workers have migrated away from these areas for the foreseeable future, a sudden resurgence in demand is unlikely for some time.
*Secondary markets performed strong this month, with a +23% average increase in demand (prospects per property) month-over-month, despite an additional +11.7% increase in supply in the rental housing market.
*Overall, total unique prospects per property are down -3.8% in secondary markets this year, however, supply is up 28% in secondary markets, therefore supply is outpacing demand this year versus last year.
*Secondary markets that are close to densely populated areas with less space and higher rental rates, such as Surrey, BC and Etobicoke, ON, are experiencing the greatest decline in secondary market demand. Remote work is making it possible for renters to look to certain suburbs for more affordable housing i.e. Oshawa, ON and Quebec City, QC.
*Overall, tertiary markets experience a strong increase in demand this month versus last month.
*Unique prospects per property increased by +18.5% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with a decrease of -0.5% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.
*According to our data, tertiary markets are showing resilience in demand this year versus last year.
*Overall, demand (total unique prospects per property) is down -3.9% this year versus the same time last year, however, supply is up +19.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that supply is outpacing demand in tertiary markets this year versus this time last year.
The data shown in this report show that rental market demand has increased in many Canadian cities month-over-month, and is showing normal seasonal shifts in demand despite the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns.
Additionally, there are notable year-over-year changes in demand in certain markets. Primary markets continue to indicate declining demand, where secondary and tertiary markets show relative stability year-over-year, and in same cases extreme growth, due to migration away from city centers. Areas with lower population and more affordable housing are seeing the greatest increase in demand.
We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.
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