The wait is over! View the November 2023 Rentsync National Rental Demand Report.
In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).
The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city, and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.
As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.
In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:
Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months.
For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 4.2 this month, versus 4.5 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced a decrease in demand (unique prospects per property) by 0.3 points this month.
Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.
For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went down 10% in December versus November. In December 2020, the year-over-year unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 18% compared to December 2019.
Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. Position will vary depending on demand.
For example: This month, Oshawa, ON remained steady in 2nd position versus last month due to a relatively stable month-over-month change (10% decrease) in prospects per property. Whereas Abbotsford, BC moved up 1 spot (from 4th to 3rd on the list). This due to the fact that Richmond Hill, which was 3rd on the list last month, had fewer than 20 properties this month and was no longer included in this month's data set. Therefore, Abbotsford, BC moved up, after once again, a relatively stable change in prospects per property (a decrease of 5%).
*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for December versus November 2020, as well as a year-over-year comparison from December 2020 versus December 2019. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from November to December decreased 5.2%, additionally an overall increase in supply (+1.2%) from November to December, in Primary (+1.3%), and Tertiary (2%) markets, slightly impacted the number of unique prospects per property in these regions the most.
It is possible to hypothesize that the decrease in demand is due to seasonal declines as well as a consequence of government lockdowns in specific metropolitan areas due to COVID-19 prevention as cases continue to rise in Canada.
However, it is important to note that secondary markets saw a decrease in supply (-4.7%) this month. These areas also experienced the most cities with the highest increase in demand. The report shows that 5 (out of the 10) cities in secondary markets actually increased their demand scores in December versus November, including, Surrey, BC (+0.3), Brampton, ON (+0.5), Etobicoke, ON (+0.5), Victoria, BC (+0.1), and Quebec City, QC (+0.4).
Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is actually up 21.3% this year, versus the same time last year, however, supply is also up 35.3% with more than 3,053 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year.
Therefore, increased supply has impacted unique prospects per property across the majority of Canadian cities year-over-year. As more supply floods the market (i.e. Airbnbs), demand is being spread out.
There continues to be a consistent downward trend in Primary and some Secondary markets that are more densely populated, and have higher rent rates. We can provide a thesis that this is due to COVID-19's impact on migration away from urban city centers to locations with more space and more affordable housing, as remote work continues to increase.
*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for Dec 2020 versus Nov 2020
*The increase in demand found in Oshawa, ON and Nanaimo, BC could be related to remote work and migration to less densely populated areas with reduced rent rates. However, the decrease in demand in the many other cities is directly related to an increase in supply, and not due to a decrease in unique prospects.
*We have an additional 3,053 new properties listed (+35.3%) on ILS's this year versus last, giving the appearance of a poorer performance in 2020 vs 2019, but we actually see a 21.3% increase in total unique prospects versus the same time last year.
*These trends are consistent with what we have witnessed since the beginning of the winter off-season and due the impact of COVID-19 and increasing cases, and stricter government lockdowns during this time, these downward trends are not unexpected.
In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets:
Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations, and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.
*Overall demand in primary markets was relatively stable this month versus last month. Overall supply increased by +1.3% in primary markets, however, most cities did not see dramatic fluctuations in demand.
*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from November to December were mostly stable, and expected due to seasonal shifts in demand and the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns.
Total unique prospects decreased by 2.1% on average for the month and unique prospects per property decreased by 5.1%. (See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand decline in primary markets.)
*Overall, total unique prospects has increased 16.8% year-over-year in primary markets, however, this year, supply is outpacing demand – listings for rental properties are up 39.6% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets – causing unique prospects per property to drop 30.5% on average year-over-year.
*Due to increased vacancies/availability, supply is outpacing demand 2.5x in primary markets in December of this year.
*According to our data, Western cities in primary markets appear to be less impacted by the effects of COVID-19 on year-over-year demand. However, supply is still outpacing demand in most of these cities.
*Ontario and Quebec have been considered hot beds for COVID-19, and the downward trend in demand and unique prospects per property is likely a reflection of the restrictions and provisions in the primary markets within these provinces.
*Secondary markets experienced the greatest increase in demand this month (+0.5 this month versus last).
Surrey, ON increased demand by +0.3 points this month and has seen an increase of 2% in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
Brampton, ON saw an increase of +0.5 in demand, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.5 increase in demand, and 17% increase in unique prospects per property.
Victoria, BC saw an increase of +0.1 in demand, and a slight 0.5% decrease in unique prospects per property due to an increase in properties this month versus last.
Quebec City, QC experienced an increase of +0.4 in demand and an increase of 19% unique prospects per property this month.
*Overall, total unique prospects are up 5.5% in secondary markets this year, however, supply is up 27.4% in secondary markets, therefore supply is outpacing demand by nearly 5x this year versus last year.
*Secondary markets that are close to densely populated areas with less space and higher rental rates, such as Surrey, BC and Etobicoke, ON, are experiencing the greatest decline in secondary market demand. Remote work is making it possible for renters to look to certain suburbs for more affordable housing i.e. Oshawa, ON
*Unique prospects per property decreased by 11.1% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with an increase of 4.4% available properties in these areas month-over-month. (See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)
*Overall, total unique prospects are up 17.3% this year versus the same time last year, and number of properties are up 27% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that supply is slightly outpacing demand in tertiary markets this year versus this time last year.
The data shown in this report show that rental market demand has declined slightly in many Primary, Tertiary, and some Secondary cities month-over-month, but is showing great stability despite seasonal shifts in demand and the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns. In fact, some Secondary markets are actually experiencing an increase in demand, as renters continue to search for deals and promotions during lockdown.
Additionally, there are notable year-over-year changes in demand in certain markets. Primary markets continue to indicate declining demand, where some secondary and tertiary markets are seeing a year-over-year increase in demand due to migration away from city centers. Areas with lower population and more affordable housing are seeing the greatest increase in demand.
We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.
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