Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: August 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand and lead volume percentage, it's possible to measure this against your own metrics, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result.

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Oshawa, ON received a demand score of 8.4 this month, versus 7.1 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 1.3 points this month.

Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.

For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Oshawa, ON went up 16% in July versus June. In July 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Oshawa, ON have gone up 20% compared to June 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Oshawa, ON moved up 1 spot on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Oshawa, ON is up 3 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for July 2021 versus June 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from July 2021 versus July 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.

Key Takeaways

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from June to July increased by 2.2%, while the number of properties increased by 11% this month versus last month.

• Primary: Supply increased +2.6%, and demand increased +7.6%.

• Secondary: Supply increased +3.3% and demand increased +7.5%.

• Tertiary: Supply increased +2.4% and demand increased +14.3%.

The overall increase in demand is likely due to loosening restrictions across the majority of Canadian cities as we reach higher vaccination rates nationwide. This is likely a pent up surge, especially in primary markets as renters flock to secure deals and promotions before the fall months.

Secondary markets saw 50.7% more unique prospects per property this month versus primary markets, and tertiary markets saw 38.4% more unique prospects per property versus primary markets this month.

*Overall, the majority of Canadian cities experienced an increase in demand in July 2021 versus June 2021. As COVID restrictions continue to ease and schools return in the fall, we could see an even greater surge into next month. 

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up 24.8% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada continues to flourish. Supply is also up 21.6% with more than 2,143 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year.

Overall, the year-over-year (July '21 vs July '20) data shows:

• Primary: Supply is up +24.5%, and demand decreased by -8.5%.

• Secondary: Supply is up +19.9%, and demand is down -13.8%.

• Tertiary: Supply is up +14.7%, demand is up +7.2%.

The year-over-year rental market analysis for July shows that increased rental supply, in addition to reduced travel in and out of province and country, continues to impact rental demand in many Canadian cities. Notably, migration away from city centers due to remote work and the need for more affordable and spacious housing has driven demand into secondary markets, and now even further into tertiary markets.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for July 2021 versus June 2021

Top 50 Cities in Canada

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

• Overall, the majority of Canadian cities showed an increase in demand month-over-month as restrictions lifted in many cities, and student renters as well as downtown workers prepare for a return to in-person work and schooling in the fall.

Upwards

• Oshawa, ON moved to the top spot, increasing demand by +1.3, and experienced a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Richmond, BC moved up 11 spots, and saw an increase of +4.3 demand points, yielding a 53% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Waterloo, ON moved up 12 spots, with a +2.8 increase in demand, and a 44% increase in unique prospects per property.

• East York, ON saw an increase of +1.3 in demand, and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Kamloops, BC moved up 8 spots and saw an increase of +1.3 in demand and a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Kitchener, ON moved up 1 spot, to the top 10, and increased demand by +0.9 points with an increase of 18% unique prospects per property.

• New Westminster, BC moved up 1 spot and saw an increase in demand of +1.0 and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Halifax, NS moved down 2 spots, but increased demand by +0.7, and saw a 15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Coquitlam, BC moved up 2 spots, experiencing an increase in demand of +1.1, and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Victoria, BC jumped up 14 spots, saw a +1.8 increase in demand and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.

• St. Catharines, ON moved up 6 spots, and experienced a +0.8 increase in demand, and a 19% increase in prospects per property.

• Kingston, ON moved up 8 spots, and saw a +1.0 increase in demand, as well as a 26% increase in prospects per property.

• Oakville, ON moved up 9 spots, with a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Guelph, ON moved up 3 spots, and experienced a +0.6 increase in demand, and a 15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• St. John's, NL jumped up 13 spots this month, with demand increasing by +1.3, and up 44% unique prospects per property.

• Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots, saw a +0.4 point increase in demand and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Lethbridge, AB moved up 7 spots, with a +1.1 increase in demand, and a 36% increase in unique prospects per property.

• London, ON moved up 3 spots, and saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Sherwood Park, AB entered the list with over 20 properties listed, experiencing a +0.6 increase in demand, and a 26% lift in unique prospects per property.

• Prince Albert, SK went up 3 spots this month, increasing demand by +0.7, and saw a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Saskatoon, SK moved down 1 spot, but saw a +0.4 increase in demand, and a 21% lift in prospects per property.

• Toronto, ON moved down 1 spot, but also saw a +0.2 increase in demand, and a 12% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Lloydminster, BC moved up 3 spots, and saw a +0.4 increase in demand with a 15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Red Deer, AB moved down 1 spot, but saw a +0.2 increase in demand, and a 15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Sarnia, ON remained at the 50th spot, experiencing a +0.2 point increase in demand and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.

*Brantford, ON, Barrie, ON, Sherwood Park, AB, and Saint John, NB all entered the list this month as they hit a threshold of over 20 rental properties.

No Demand Change

• Burnaby, BC moved down 6 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 3.7 points, and a slight decrease of 2% in prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB remained in the same spot, and stayed at 1.6 demand points, with no change in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Brantford, ON re-entered the top 50 after with more than 20 properties available, however, due to increased supply experienced a -0.1 decline in demand, and a 3% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

• Barrie, ON also re-entered the top 50 list due to increased supply, but saw a -0.5 decrease in demand, and a 9% drop in unique prospects per property.

• Welland, ON moved down 10 spots this month, reducing demand by -1.1 points, and saw an 20% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Langley, BC moved down 14 spots, decreased demand by -0.8 points and went down 18% in unique prospects per property.

• Brampton, ON dropped 17 spots this month, and due to a surge in supply, reduced demand by -1.8 points, and saw a 34% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Abbotsford, BC went down 21 spots this month, reduced demand by -0.9, and saw a 22% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Hamilton, ON dropped 10 spots, experienced a -0.2 point decline in demand and a 5% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Scarborough, ON moved down 6 spots, decreased demand by -0.2 and saw a 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Saint John, NB re-entered the list this month, but due to an increase in supply saw a -0.6 point decline in demand and a 29% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): July 2021 vs. June 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Oshawa, ON moved up to the top spot, and increased +1.3 in demand, and saw a 16% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

2. Richmond, BC moved up 11 spots, increasing demand by +4.3 points, and a +53% boost in unique prospects per property.

3. Surrey, ON moved down 2 spots this month, with a -0.2 decrease in demand and a 2% decrease in prospects per property.

4. Waterloo, ON moved up 12 spots, increased demand by +2.8, and experienced a 44% increase in unique prospects per property.

5. Nanaimo, BC remained in the 5th spot, experiencing a +0.5 increase in demand, and a 8% increase in prospects per property.

6. East York, ON moved up 3 spots, but increasing demand by +1.3, and increased unique prospects per property by 24%.

7. Brantford, ON entered the list this month due to an increase in supply, but experienced a decrease of -0.1 in demand, and a 3% decrease in unique prospects per property.

8. Barrie, ON also entered the list as they met the 20 property threshold, but decreased demand by -0.5 points, and -9% in unique prospects per property for the month.

9. Kamloops, BC moved up 8 spots, increasing demand by +1.3 and saw a +27% increase in unique prospects per property.

10.  Kitchener, ON moved into the top 10 list this month, with a +0.9 increase in demand and a 18% lift in unique prospects per property.

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in July 2021 versus June 2021 came from Richmond, BC, Waterloo, ON, and Kamloops, BC, which all experienced a significant increase in demand.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): July 2021 vs. July 2020

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

1. Oshawa, ON moved up 3 positions this year, and increased by +1.6 in demand, and saw a 20% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

2. Richmond, BC moved up 27 spots, increasing demand by +5.5 points, and a +68% boost in unique prospects per property.

3. Surrey, ON remained in the 3rd spot, with a -0.3 decrease in demand and a 4% decrease in prospects per property.

4. Waterloo, ON moved up 9 spots, increasing demand by +3.5, and experienced a 55% increase in unique prospects per property.

5. Nanaimo, BC moved up 32 spots on the list, experiencing a +3.6 increase in demand, and a 61% increase in prospects per property.

6. East York, ON moved up 10 spots, but decreased demand by +1.7, and decreased unique prospects per property by -24%.

7. Brantford, ON experienced an increase of +0.2 in demand, and a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.

8. Barrie, ON has increased demand by +1.4 points, and +31% in unique prospects per property this year versus the same time last year.

9. Kamloops, BC moved up 29 spots, but remained at 4.9 demand points and saw a slight -1% decrease in unique prospects per property.

10.  Kitchener, ON moved down 2 spots this year, with a -0.8 decrease in demand and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*The most notable increase in demand year-over-year continues to be in Secondary and Tertiary Canadian cities. There appears to be a drastic increase in demand where affordability and additional space are available for renters. This is likely due to a long-term commitment by many businesses to allow for remote work, giving renters the freedom to move to areas that have lower rent rates but additional living and working space.

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

1. Primary (Populations Over 600K)

2. Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)

3. Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K)

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways

Month-Over-Month (M/M)

• Primary: Supply increased +2.6%, and demand increased +7.6%.

• Secondary: Supply increased +3.3% and demand increased +7.5%.

• Tertiary: Supply increased +2.4% and demand increased +14.3%.

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)

• Primary: Supply is up +24.5%, and demand decreased by -8.5%.

• Secondary: Supply is up +19.9%, and demand is down -13.8%.

• Tertiary: Supply is up +14.7%, demand is up +7.2%.

Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): July 2021 vs. June 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Demand in primary markets increased this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by +7.6% in primary markets this month, while supply increased by +2.6% this month versus last month.

Upward

• North York, ON saw a +0.3 increase in demand and an 8% increase in prospects per property.

• Vancouver, BC increased +0.5 in demand and experienced a +16% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Calgary, AB saw a +0.4 increase in demand and experienced a +15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Mississauga, ON saw a +0.1 increase in demand and a 4% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Ottawa, ON went up +0.2 in demand points and saw a 4% increase in unique prospects per property due to the increase in supply.

• Toronto, ON also saw a +0.2 increase in demand and a 6% lift in unique prospects per property.

• Edmonton, AB went up +0.1 demand points and saw an increase of 10% in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Winnipeg, MB remained at 1.6 demand points and saw no change in unique prospects per property this month.

• Montreal, QC stayed at 1.3 demand points and experienced a slight 3% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Scarborough, ON experienced a -0.1 decrease in demand and saw a -8% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from June to July has increased. Primary markets are beginning to regain momentum as COVID restrictions ease and more individuals are fully vaccinated. 

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): July 2021 vs. July 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total demand decreased -8.5% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up +24.5% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC moved up 2 spots, experiencing a +1.0 increase in demand and a 29% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Calgary, AB moved up 2 spots from this time last year and saw a +0.6 increase in demand and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Edmonton, AB moved up 1 spot, but remained at 1.3 demand points and saw a slight 1% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

Downward

• North York, ON saw a -0.6 decrease in demand from this time last year and a decrease of 15% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Mississauga, ON moved down 2 spots, had a -1.2 point decrease in demand, and a 31% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Scarborough, ON experienced a -0.1 decrease in demand from this time last year and a slight decrease of 3% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

• Ottawa, ON decreased by -0.2 in demand and saw a 9% decrease in unique prospects per property from last year.

• Toronto, ON decreased demand by -0.2 points and saw a 8% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Winnipeg, MB saw a -0.3 decrease in demand and  a 17% decrease in unique prospects per property.

• Montreal, QC reduced demand by -1.1 and has seen a drastic decline of 53% in unique prospects per property.

*The most notable decline from last year to this year are Mississauga, ON, Winnipeg, MB and Montreal, QC, which may be attributed to rising rent rates in these areas. Primary cities in Western provinces such as Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB, and Edmonton, AB continue to see rental demand growth year-over-year, likely due to easing restrictions in these cities. Meanwhile Scarborough, ON, Toronto, ON, and Ottawa, ON are seeing numbers plateau year-over-year.

Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): July 2021 vs. June 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw an increase of +7.5% prospects per property this month, with supply slightly increasing by +3.3% in these areas. 

Upwards

• Oshawa, ON saw an increase of +1.3 demand points and an increase of 16% in unique prospects per property.

• Surrey, BC increased demand by +0.2 and saw a 2% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Kitchener, ON saw an increase of +0.9 in demand and an 18% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

• Halifax, NS experienced a +0.7 increase in demand and a 15% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Victoria, BC saw an increase of +1.3 in demand and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.

• London, ON reported a +0.7 increase in demand and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.

• Windsor, ON experienced a +0.1 increase in demand, and a 12% increase in unique prospects per property this month. 

No Demand Change

• Etobicoke, ON remained at 2.9 in demand and a +0.5% increase in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Brampton, ON fell by -0.8 in demand and decreased prospects per property by 34%.

• Hamilton, ON decreased demand by -0.2 and saw a 5% decrease in unique prospects per property this month versus last.

*Overall, secondary markets saw a relative increase in demand this month. Last month we saw a slight market correction from the surge in demand over the past year in these cities, which appears to have plateaued last month due to lockdowns, but has since recovered.

Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): June 2021 vs. June 2020

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is down 13.5% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up 19.9% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.

Upward

• Oshawa, ON increased demand by +1.6 points and 20% in unique prospects per property this year versus last year.

• Halifax, NS saw a +1.2 point increase in demand and an 26% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Victoria, BC experienced a +1.4 point increase in demand and a 32% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.

• London, ON went up -0.4 in demand and saw a +12% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

No Demand Change

• Windsor, ON remained at 2.6 in demand and saw a 1% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

Downward

• Surrey, BC decreased demand by -0.4 points and -4% in unique prospects per property this year versus last year.

• Kitchener, ON saw a -0.8 decrease in demand and a 14% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Brampton, ON decreased demand by -4.7 points, and saw a decrease in unique prospects per property of 58% this year versus last.

• Hamilton, ON decreased by -1.1 points this year and experienced a 22% decrease in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

• Etobicoke, ON saw a decrease of -5.0 demand points and a 64% decrease in unique prospects per property.

*Many of these areas experienced a surge in demand over the past year, however, it appears some secondary markets are beginning to cool, especially those in Ontario, which may be attributed to increased rent rates due to high demand in these cities. However, cities such as Halifax, NS and London, ON with high student rental populations continue to show high growth potential.

Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-130K)

Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): July 2021 vs. June 2021

Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Overall, tertiary markets have experienced growing month-over-month demand across most cities in these markets.

*Unique prospects per property increased by +14.3% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with an increase of +2.4% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)

Upward

• Richmond, BC moved up +4.3 demand points and saw a 53% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• St. Catharines, ON experienced a +0.8 increase in demand and a 19% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Oakville, ON increased demand by +0.7 points this month versus last month and experienced a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Sudbury, ON saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 10% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Burlington, ON increased demand by +0.2 demand points and saw a 4% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

• Saskatoon, SK saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 21% increase in prospects per property.

• Regina, SK went up +0.1 in demand and saw a 8% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

No Demand Change

• Burnaby, BC remained at 3.7 demand points this month and experienced a slight 2% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Downward

• Barrie, ON re-entered the list this month, but due to an increase in supply saw demand decrease by -0.5 and a 9% drop in unique prospects per property.

• Abbotsford, BC moved down 6 spots, with a decrease of -0.8 in demand and a -22% decline in prospects per property.

Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): July 2021 vs. July 2020

Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, unique prospects per property is up 7.2% this year versus the same time last year, and a number of properties are up 14.7% this year versus the same time last year.

Upward

• Richmond, BC saw a +5.5 increase in demand and a 68% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.

• Barrie, ON reported a +1.5 increase in demand and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.

• St. Catharines, ON experienced an increase of +1.0 in demand and a 24% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Oakville, ON saw a +2.9 point spike in demand and a 34% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

• Burlington, ON moved up +0.4 demand points, and experienced a 11% increase in demand this year versus this time last year.

• Saskatoon, SK experienced a +0.2 increase in demand and a 13% increase in unique prospects per property.

• Regina, SK increased demand by +0.1 and went up 1% in unique prospects per property versus the same time last year.

No Demand Change

• Sudbury, ON remained at 3.3 demand points, and saw no change in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.

Downward

• Burnaby, BC decreased demand by -2.9 points and -45% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

• Abbotsford, BC decreased demand by -1.2 points and -28% unique prospects per property from this time last year.

*Year-over-year tertiary markets are showing strong signs of growth and migration due to more affordable housing and remote work. As borders reopen and immigration resumes, we may see even greater demand in these spots.

Conclusion

The data shown in this report reveals that the 2021 mid-summer rental market experienced an increase in demand from June to July across many Canadian cities, which is expected as restrictions open up, due to dropping number of cases and vaccinations become more widespread across the population.

As anticipated, with second doses continuing to roll out across the country, we have seen greater market stability, and even a return to Primary markets. We'll gain a better perspective of demand into September as a return to school and work commences. However, due to COVID variants and a threat of another wave in the fall, we may not see rapid migration to major metros just yet.

We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.