Rentsync National Rental Demand Report: September 2021

Executive Summary

In this comprehensive national rental demand report, we outline significant changes in rental market demand across Canada. The data presented here is the largest data-backed analysis of rental market demand in Canada using aggregate ILS data (over 20 rental listing sites).

The data included in the Rentsync National Rental Demand Report can be used to compare and contrast demand and lead volume for the properties you manage within a given city and will allow you to make more sound decisions on marketing and advertising.

As you observe demand, prospects per property, and rent rates it's possible to measure this against your own reporting, and see whether you are in line with current industry trends, and if not, how to pivot your strategies as a result. Additionally, the report can help provide a leading indicator of emerging markets for property developers looking to explore new opportunities across Canada. 

Methodology

In order to present this data, Rentsync has determined three key calculations for each area of the report, they are as follows:

Demand Score: Our demand score is rated out of 10 (with 10 being the highest score a city can receive), and is calculated based on unique prospects, per property, per city, and compared against benchmark data from the past 12 months. 

For example: Waterloo, ON received a demand score of 8.7 this month, versus 5.2 last month. Therefore, Oshawa experienced an increase in demand (unique prospects per property) by 3.5 points this month.

Unique Prospects Percentage (% +/-): This is determined according to the year-over-year (YOY) or month-over-month (MOM) increase or decrease (aka the demand) in unique prospects per property / per city.

For example: The month-over-month unique prospects in Waterloo, ON went up 67% in August versus July. In August 2021, the year-over-year unique prospects in Waterloo, ON have gone up 518% compared to August 2020.

Position: The position is determined by unique prospects per property, with cities that have at least *20 properties or more. The position will vary depending on demand.

For example: This month, Waterloo, ON moved up 2 spots on the Top 50 Canadian Cities in Demand. However, year-over-year Waterloo, ON is up 17 spots since last year on the Top 50 list.

*The following report provides month-over-month ILS data for August 2021 versus July 2021, as well as a year-over-year comparison from August 2021 versus August 2020. It also outlines the month-over-month and year-over-year trends in primary, secondary, and tertiary markets.
 

Key Takeaways

Month-over-month (M/M): Overall, total unique prospects from July to August decreased by 6.9%, while the number of properties decreased by 22.9% this month versus last month. Therefore, the increase in demand per property is relative to the large decrease in supply. The month-over-month market snapshot showed:

• Primary: Supply decreased -25.5%, and demand increased +19.6%.
• Secondary: Supply decreased -21.9% and demand increased +28.7%.
• Tertiary: Supply decreased -1.4% and demand increased +4.5%.

*The increase in demand and decrease in supply is likely due to loosening restrictions for vaccinated travellers, plus a return to work and school for the fall across the majority of Canadian cities. This has been a pent up surge, especially in primary markets as renters are now returning to the downtown core, or choosing secondary markets and renting in commuter cities nearby.

Despite lower search volume in the month of August versus July, "demand" or "unique prospects per property" was up significantly due to a decrease in supply across the majority of Canadian cities.

Year-over-year (Y/Y): Overall unique prospects for multifamily residential housing is up +164.7% this year versus the same time last year, indicating that rental demand in Canada has rebounded significantly this year versus last. Supply is up +1.7% with 130 new properties entering the long-term rental market this year versus the same time last year. Overall, the year-over-year (August '21 vs August '20) data shows:

• Primary: Supply is up +2.4%, and demand increased by +154.6%.
• Secondary: Supply is up +1.4%, and demand is up +120.8%.
• Tertiary: Supply is up +1.5%, demand is up +119.2%.

The year-over-year rental market analysis for August 2021 shows that the rental housing surge has officially commenced as renters return to downtown cores, as well as greater movement across each market due to loosening restrictions to travel and immigration. Last year, the amount of unique prospects per property had stalled for a number of factors, however, prospects and properties have since implemented a number of working procedures to make touring and renting safe, and with many requiring closer access to school and work, there is no more time to delay moving, if you needed to find a rental for September.

Top 50 Canadian Cities in Rental Demand

*Demand is calculated using unique prospects per property per city for August 2021 versus July 2021

*We've added rent rates to our Top 50 month-over-month report to provide greater scope and understanding of the impact of affordability on demand, specifically for 1 Bedroom and 2 Bedroom units in these cities.

Top 50 Cities in Canada

Notable Changes in Demand Over the Past Month

Overall, 86% of the Top 50 Canadian cities reported an increase in demand month-over-month (August vs July) as restrictions lifted in many cities, immigration resumed, and students and workers prepare for a return to in-person work and learning come September.

Upwards

• Gatineau, QC moved to the top spot, as it hit over 20 available properties, and determined the new demand threshold for the month.
• Waterloo, ON moved up 2 spots, with a +3.5 increase in demand, and a 67% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Burnaby, BC moved up 16 spots, and saw an increase of +2.8 in demand, and a 93% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Kitchener, ON moved up 4 spots, and increased demand by +1.6 points with an increase of 41% unique prospects per property.
• North Vancouver, BC moved up 12 spots, and saw an increase in demand of +2.2 and a 69% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Victoria, BC entered the top 10 list, jumping up 7 spots, saw a +2.8 increase in demand and a 57% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Brampton, ON moved up 10 spots, and experienced a +1.5 increase in demand, and a 51% increase in prospects per property.
• Guelph, ON moved up 9 spots, and experienced a +0.9 increase in demand, and a 32% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Vancouver, BC moved up 10 spots, saw a +0.8 point increase in demand and a 31% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Abbotsford, BC moved up 10 spots, saw a +0.8 point increase in demand and a 32% increase in unique prospects per property.
• St. John's, NL moved up 5 spots this month, with demand increasing by +1.3, and up 44% unique prospects per property.
• Hamilton, ON moved up 10 spots, and saw a +0.8 increase in demand, and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
• London, ON moved up 10 spots, and saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 25% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Lethbridge, AB moved up 6 spots, with a +0.6 increase in demand, and a 21% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Etobicoke, ON moved up 9 spots, and saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Mississauga, ON moved up 8 spots, and saw a +0.4 increase in demand, and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Toronto, ON moved up 8 spots, and saw a +0.3 increase in demand, and a 22% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Red Deer, AB moved up 10 spots, saw a +0.4 increase in demand, and a 36% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Montreal, QC moved into the Top 50 this month, and saw a +0.7 increase in demand, and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Sarnia, ON moved up 10 spots, and saw a +0.3 increase in demand, and a 26% increase in unique prospects per property.

*Gatineau, QC, Montreal, QC, Yellowknife, NWT, Medicine Hat, AB, Regina, SK, Quebec City, QC, Fort McMurray, AB, and Grande Prairie, AB all entered the top 50 this month.

No Demand Change

• Winnipeg, MB moved up 3 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 1.3 points, and a slight decrease of 2% in prospects per property.
• Lloydminster, BC moved up 3 spots on the list, however, demand remained steady at 1.2 points, and a slight decrease of 1% in prospects per property.
• Regina, SK entered the Top 50 this month, stayed at 0.9 demand points, with a 2% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Grand Prairie, AB entered the Top 50 list this month, but remained at 0.6 in demand, with a 1% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Downwards

• Nanaimo, BC moved down 7 spots, experiencing a -0.4 decline in demand, and a 8% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
• Richmond, BC moved down 16 spots, experiencing a -3.0 decline in demand, and a 46% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
• Sudbury, ON moved down 2 spots, with a -0.2 decrease in demand, and a 7% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Burlington, ON saw a -0.4 decrease in demand, and a 13% drop in unique prospects per property.
• Oakville, ON moved down 11 spots this month, reducing demand by -0.7 points, and saw an 23% decrease in unique prospects per property.
• Saskatoon, SK decreased demand by -0.2 points and went down 13% in unique prospects per property.
• Quebec City, QC entered the Top 50 this month, however due to an increase in supply, reduced demand by -0.2 points, and saw a 13% decrease in unique prospects per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand Drill Down (M/M): August 2021 vs. July 2021

Key Trends for Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (M/M)

1. Gatineau, QC moved up to the top spot, as it met the threshold of 20 properties and set the demand threshold for the month, seeing the highest prospects per property this month.
2. Waterloo, ON moved up 2 spots, increasing demand by +3.5 points, and a +67% boost in unique prospects per property.
3. Surrey, BC remained in the 3rd spot this month, with a +1.8 increase in demand and a 27% increase in prospects per property.
4. Burnaby, BC moved up 16 spots, experiencing a +2.8 increase in demand, and a 93% increase in prospects per property.
5. Kitchener, ON moved up 5 spots, increased demand by +1.6, and experienced a 41% increase in unique prospects per property.
6. North Vancouver, BC moved up 12 spots, increasing demand by +2.2, and increased unique prospects per property by 69%.
7. East York, ON moved down 1 spot, but experienced an increase of +0.8 in demand, and a 20% increase in unique prospects per property.
8. Victoria, BC moved up 7 spots, increasing demand by +2.9 and saw a +57% increase in unique prospects per property.
9. Brantford, ON moved down 2 spots, but increased demand by +1.0 point, and +23% in unique prospects per property for the month.
10. New Westminster, BC inched into the top 10 list this month, with a +1.1 increase in demand and a 28% lift in unique prospects per property.

Overall, the biggest changes in the top 10 cities in August 2021 versus July 2021 came from Waterloo, ON, Burnaby, BC, North Vancouver, BC, and Victoria, BC which all experienced a decrease in rental supply, which impacted an increase in overall demand per property.

Top 10 Canadian Cities Drill Down (Y/Y): August 2021 vs. August 2020

Key Trends for the Top 10 Canadian Cities in Demand (Y/Y)

1. Gatineau, ON was not on the top 10 list last year due to not meeting the desired property threshold of 20.
2. Waterloo, ON moved up 17 spots this year, with a +7.3 increase in demand and a 518% increase in unique prospects per property.
3. Surrey, BC moved down 1 spot, increasing demand by +4.6 points, and up 128% in prospects per property.
4. Burnaby, BC moved up 13 spots, increasing demand by +4.3 points, and up 295% in prospects per property.
5. Kitchener, ON moved up 2 spots, with a +3.7 increase in demand and a 192% increase in prospects per property.
6. North Vancouver, BC moved into the list this year as it increased the number of properties available to 20 versus last year.
7. East York, ON moved down 4 spots on the list, but experienced a +2.4 increase in demand, and a 83% increase in prospects per property.
8. Victoria, BC moved up 5 spots, increasing demand by +4.2, and experienced a 397% increase in unique prospects per property.
9. Brantford, ON moved up 4 spots, increased demand by +3.5, and increased unique prospects per property by +204%.
10.  New Westminster, BC moved up 6 spots, experienced an increase of +3.6 in demand, and a 233% increase in unique prospects per property.

*The most notable increase in demand year-over-year continues to be in secondary cities. In fact, 40% of cities on the top 10 list are in secondary markets. There appears to be a drastic increase in demand where affordability, additional space and greater transportation accessibility for commuting is available. This is likely due to a long-term commitment by many businesses to allow for a hybrid or remote work approach.

An Analysis of Key Canadian Markets

In order to better segment our data and analyze what is happening within specific markets across Canada, we have broken down our data into 3 key markets: 

• Primary (Populations Over 600K)
• Secondary (Populations Between 600-235K)
• Tertiary (Populations Between 235-100K).

Here we will gain a deeper perspective on demand across larger populations and any movement due to the impact of COVID-19 on the rental market.

Key Takeaways

Month-Over-Month (M/M)

• Primary: Supply decreased -25.5%, and demand increased +19.6%
• Secondary: Supply decreased -21.9% and demand increased +28.7%
• Tertiary: Supply decreased -1.4% and demand increased +4.5%

Year-Over-Year (Y/Y)

• Primary: Supply is up +2.4%, and demand increased by +154.6%.
• Secondary: Supply is up +1.4%, and demand is up +120.8%.
• Tertiary: Supply is up +1.5%, demand is up +119.2%.

Primary Markets (Populations >600K)

Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (M/M): August 2021 vs. July 2021

Notable Changes in Primary Markets Over the Past Month

*Demand in primary markets increased this month versus last month. Overall demand increased by +19.6% in primary markets this month, while supply decreased by -25.5% this month versus last month.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC increased +0.8 in demand and experienced a +31% increase in unique prospects per property.
• North York, ON saw a +0.5 increase in demand and a 17% increase in prospects per property.
• Calgary, AB saw a +0.2 increase in demand and experienced a +10% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Mississauga, ON saw a +0.3 increase in demand and a 16% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Scarborough, ON experienced a +0.4 increase in demand and saw a 18% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Ottawa, ON went up +0.4 in demand points and saw a 23% increase in unique prospects per property due to the increase in supply.
• Toronto, ON also saw a +0.3 increase in demand and a 22% lift in unique prospects per property.
• Montreal, QC reported a +0.6 increase in demand and experienced an 80% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Edmonton, AB went up +0.1 demand points and saw an increase of 4% in unique prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• Winnipeg, MB remained at 1.3 demand points and saw a 2% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

*Overall, month-over-month demand in primary markets from August to July has increased in the majority of cities. Primary markets are beginning to regain momentum as COVID restrictions ease and a return to downtown cores reemerge.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on demand in primary markets.)

Canadian Cities – Primary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): August 2021 vs. August 2020

Notable Changes in Primary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, total demand increased +154.6% year-over-year in primary markets, while listings for rental properties are up +2.4% this year versus the same time last year in primary markets.

Upward

• Vancouver, BC moved up 3 spots, experiencing a +2.7 increase in demand and a 295% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
• North York, ON saw a 1.5 increase in demand from this time last year and an increase of 86% in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
• Calgary, AB moved up 2 spots from this time last year and saw a +1.8 increase in demand and a 203% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Mississauga, ON moved up 2 spots, had a +1.5 point increase in demand, and a 141% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Scarborough, ON experienced a +1.6 increase in demand from this time last year and a 172% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.
• Ottawa, ON increased by +1.3 in demand and saw a 155% increase in unique prospects per property from last year.
• Toronto, ON increased demand by +1.2 points and saw a 181% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Montreal, QC increased demand by +0.7 and has seen an increase of 118% in unique prospects per property.
• Winnipeg, MB saw a +0.6 increase in demand and  a 93% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Edmonton, AB moved up +0.6 demand points and saw a 141% increase in unique prospects per property year-over-year.

*Overall, year-over-year primary market demand has rebounded this year versus the same time last year. As more processes and measures have been put in place to maintain safe conditions for renting, and as vaccines have become more wildly accessible, return to school, work, travel, and immigration has influenced this surge in demand.

Secondary Markets (Populations ~600-235K)

Canadian Cities – Secondary Markets Drill Down (M/M): August 2021 vs. July 2021

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Secondary markets saw an increase of +28.7% prospects per property this month, with supply slightly decreasing by -21.9% in these areas. 

Upwards

• Gatineau, QC jumped on the top of this list due to an increase in properties available, which set the demand threshold for the month.
• Surrey, BC increased demand by +1.8 and saw a 27% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Kitchener, ON saw an increase of +1.6 in demand and a 41% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
• Victoria, BC saw an increase of +2.9 in demand and a 57% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Halifax, NS experienced a +0.9 increase in demand and a 22% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Brampton, ON increased +1.5 in demand and increased prospects per property by 51%.
• Hamilton, ON increased demand by +0.8 and saw a 30% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last.
• London, ON reported a +0.7 increase in demand and a 25% increase in unique prospects per property this month versus last month.
• Etobicoke, ON saw a +0.7 increase in demand and a 30% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Windsor, ON experienced a +0.3 increase in demand, and a 13% increase in unique prospects per property this month.

*Overall, secondary markets saw an increase in demand this month, and continue to show the greatest increase in demand despite a return to primary markets indicating that many renters are willing to choose commuter cities, or able to work remotely for the foreseeable future.

Canadian Cities – Secondary Market Drill Down (Y/Y): August 2021 vs. August 2020

Notable Changes in Secondary Market Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, demand is up +120.8% in secondary markets this year, and supply is up +1.4% in secondary markets this year versus this time last year.

Upward

• Gatineau, QC entered the market this year due to an increase in properties on the platform.
• Surrey, BC increased demand by +4.8 points and +128% in unique prospects per property this year versus last year.
• Kitchener, ON saw a +3.7 increase in demand and a 192% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• Victoria, BC experienced a +4.2 point increase in demand and a 397% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus the same period last year.
• Halifax, NS saw a +3.0 point increase in demand and a 167% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• Brampton, ON increased demand by +1.9 points, and saw a increase in unique prospects per property of 78% this year versus last.
• Hamilton, ON increased by +1.8 points this year and experienced a 119% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
• London, ON went up +2.2 in demand and saw a +187% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• Etobicoke, ON saw an increase of +0.9 demand points and a 37% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Windsor, ON went up +1.5 in demand and saw a 176% increase in unique prospects per property versus this time last year.

*Many secondary markets experienced a surge in demand over the past year, due to the need for additional space for those working remotely increased. Additionally, many of these cities increased transit options for those commuting in and out of these cities, making them more attractive than they were previously to renters.

Tertiary Markets (Populations ~235-100K)

*Due to rental market growth in certain tertiary cities, we have expanded our reporting to include populations between 235K – 100K (previously 135K) to provide a more cohesive report and a better sense of emerging tertiary markets, so that developers and marketers can get a better understanding of migration to these areas in Canada.

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (M/M): August 2021 vs. July 2021

Notable Changes in Tertiary Market Demand Over the Past Month

*Unique prospects per property increased by +4.5% this month versus last month in tertiary markets, with a decrease of -1.4% in rental supply in these areas month-over-month.

(See the year-over-year analysis below, for more perspective on the rise in demand in tertiary markets.)

Upward

• Burnaby, BC moved up 5 spots, increasing demand by +2.8 points and experienced a 93% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
• *East York, ON was added to the list due to more properties and increased demand in this city, as it reached 5.3 demand points, up 0.8 from last month and a 20% increase in prospects per property.
• *Kingston, ON was also added to this list as it has increased its number of properties and rental demand, and saw a +0.4 increase in demand and a 14% increase in unique prospects per property.
• *Guelph, ON was added to the list due to more properties and increased demand in this city, moving up +0.9 in demand from last month and a 32% increase in prospects per property
• St. Catharines, ON experienced a +0.3 increase in demand and a 10% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
• Abbotsford, BC moved up 3 spots, with an increase of +0.8 in demand and a +32% increase in prospects per property.

No Demand Change

• *Cambridge, ON was added to the list as it has increased its number of properties and remained at 3.2 demand points, and experienced a 1% increase in unique prospects per property.

Downward

• Richmond, BC moved down 5 spots this month, and saw a decrease of -3.0 demand points and saw a 46% increase in unique prospects per property this month.
• Sudbury, ON saw a -0.2 decrease in demand and a 7% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.
• Burlington, ON decreased demand by -0.4 demand points and saw a 23% decrease in unique prospects per property this month.

Canadian Cities – Tertiary Markets Drill Down (Y/Y): August 2021 vs. August 2020

Notable Changes in Tertiary Demand Over the Past Year

*Overall, unique prospects per property is up 119.2% this year versus the same time last year, and a number of properties are up 1.5% this year versus the same time last year.

Upward

• Burnaby, BC saw a +4.3 increase in demand and a 295% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• *East York, ON saw a +2.4 increase in demand and a +83% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• *Kingston, ON reported a +1.8 increase in demand and a 316% increase in unique prospects per property.
• *Guelph, ON reported a +2.8 increase in demand and a 316% increase in unique prospects per property.
• St. Catharines, ON experienced an increase of +2.2 in demand and a 156% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Richmond, BC saw a +2.7 increase in demand and a 298% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus last.
• Abbotsford, BC increased demand by +0.6 and +23% unique prospects per property from this time last year.
• *Cambridge, ON reported a +0.9 increase in demand and a 23% increase in unique prospects per property.
• Sudbury, ON saw a 0.9 increase in demand, and saw a 56% increase in unique prospects per property this year versus this time last year.
• Burlington, ON moved up +1.0 demand points, and experienced a 84% increase in demand this year versus this time last year.

*Year-over-year tertiary markets continue to show strong signs of growth and migration due to more affordable housing with additional space for growing families, and those woking remotely. 

Conclusion

The data shown in this report reveals that the month-over-month August 2021 rental market experienced an increase in demand from July to August across many Canadian cities. This has been anticipated for some time, as analyst predicted that many workers and students who have been postponing a move were likely to take the leap going into the start of a new school year and as employers call some workers back to the office. 

Additionally, immigration into Canada spiked in July, which may have resulted in demand increasing, especially in many primary markets, which appear to be experiencing a rental market return.

As anticipated, with second doses continuing to roll out across the country, we have seen growth across each market, with many individuals who have been living with parents or relatives during this time, now finally looking to find rental accommodations. According to our data, and industry reports, rent rates are now on the rise in major metros, pushing even more to consider secondary markets as more affordable alternatives for rental housing.

Year-over-year, the August 2021 rental market has done a complete 180 since last August. A number of catalyzing factors have created this surge, such as vaccinations, a more developed remote rental process, and the price of real estate over the past year has also forced many to hold on purchasing a home, choosing to rent instead.

We will continue to monitor, and provide an in-depth data analysis, month-over-month, and year-over-year to provide you with the most accurate insights that can help to support your ongoing marketing and advertising strategies, especially as we navigate through these unprecedented times.